January 2018 NMI
Below you will find information on the U.S. Non-Manufacturing Managers Index (NMI®). This information is intended for those looking for forward leading indicators of non-manufacturing health in the U.S.
Non-Manufacturing Index Summaries
- The NMI® registered 59.9 percent, 3.9 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 56 percent registered in December, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 96th consecutive month. According to the report’s author, Anthony Nieves, “Overall, the majority of respondents’ comments are positive about business conditions and the economy. They also indicated that recent tax changes have had a positive impact on their respective businesses.”
- According to the NMI®, 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The top three are: management of companies & support services, arts and entertainment & recreation.
- Commodities up in price include: aircraft parts; aluminum products; bacon (2); chemical products; copper; copper products (6); copper wire; #1 diesel fuel (8); #2 diesel fuel (6); electrical equipment; fuel; gasoline (6); labor — construction (11); lumber products (7); natural gas (3); paper (2); poly products; steel; steel plate; steel products (4); transportation costs and transportation services. *Please note: the number of consecutive months is indicated after each item.
- ISM®’s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index registered 62.7 percent, an increase of 8.2 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 54.5 percent. January represents growth in new orders for the 84th consecutive month, at a much faster rate compared with December. Comments from respondents include: “Budgeted monies are now available” and “Continued increased spending based on tax benefit and general improving economy.”
What Respondents Are Saying
- “Executive management [is] excited about tax breaks for CapEx purchases in [the] new tax bill.” (Information)
- “Month-over-month steady growth, on average, [is] 3 percent on project volume and 1 percent on total revenue.” (Construction)
- “Signs of strong growth [in] financial performance expectations given the recent tax changes.” (Finance & Insurance)
- “Positive outlook for 2018. We see huge pricing pressure.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
- “Business is starting off solid.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
- “First quarter begins slow like 2017, but expect things to pick up later in Q1. Outlook continues to look bright for 2018.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
- “Business activity is low due to the continued partial funding [of] bills passed (continuing resolutions).” (Public Administration)
- “Overall, sales velocity looks strong. Some regional differences due to weather conditions, but overall, a strong month.” (Wholesale Trade)
Source: Institute for Supply Management® and NMI®.